Microsoft is working on a new forecasting model that will be able to predict a wide range of events, from political outcomes to sporting event results and player signing probabilities. The work of David Rothschild at the Microsoft Research Labs, the system that the company have been working on has been opened up to the public for its next phase.
Previously the company has used data from events that have happened previously in order to built their forecasting model and the results, which can be seen at the source link below, have been turning out some fairly accurate answers. But now there’s a change for the average person to get in on this research, by making use of the Prediction Lab, a public-facing enterprise that asks users to make predictions. The resulting information will be used to upgrade Micrsoft’s forecast algorithms.
Rothschild believes that “…“any individual—you, me, the guy on the street—has a certain amount of information about the things the person cares about, but no one has been unlocking it.” The Prediction Lab is just one way of facilitating that.
Prediction Lab was recently used to determine the outcome of the Scottish independence vote, returning a 84% probability that the country would elect to remain part of the United Kingdom. Now it’s destined for other predictions, with users wagering virtual points in order to support just how correct they think their chosen outcome is.
We’ll follow these developments closely, the boffs at Microsoft Research seem to be on to something.
Source: Microsoft Research